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Shortly after his release, Santos had begun working as an influencer for Polymarket.
Santos’ case represents the most severe among four disciplinary settlements announced by Kalshi, which has faced increasing scrutiny concerning insider knowledge risks and event outcome influence by market participants.
Santos is not the only individual disciplined for trying to game the prediction market system. Ben Midgley, a Republican candidate for the governorship of Maine, admitted purchasing under $1,000 worth of contracts related to his campaign. He accepted a $5,434.30 fine and a three-year suspension.
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More recently, Polymarket has paid top dollar for prominent athletes and celebrities to promote its prediction market. The company’s paid partners include LeBron James, Derek Jeter, Eli Manning, Spike Lee, and Craig Robinson.
The Polymarket water tower can be seen from I-94, but isn’t overly prominent, as the interstate passes beneath three bridges—Concord Avenue, train tracks, and a service road—near the Mount Elliott exit.
But the advertisement is still garnering plenty of attention online and in the news, with the controversy surrounding the Polymarket branding a major topic of discussion in prediction market and gaming circles.
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Fullstory points out that while 62% of consumers have dabbled in sports event contracts, 42% traded economic or financial derivatives on a prediction market while a comparable percentage transacted in an election or political event contract. More than a quarter traded at least one entertainment or pop culture derivative.
That widening breadth is vital for the industry at a time when some analysts estimate volume could jump to $10 trillion by 2035 – a projection that is largely rooted in other categories surpassing sports for the top spot.
Nearly a third of respondents told Fullstory that increased event contract breadth could compel them to consistently choose a prediction market over a sportsbook.
