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Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.
“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.
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Notably, Spectrum said within its report that it did not believe Evolution had engaged in any illegal practices. It also refuted allegations concerning cash payments and the use of Evolution’s games in sanctioned countries.
However, Playtech suggested that Evolution had failed to provide data that would have let Spectrum determine whether gaming sessions had occurred in Iran, Syria and Sudan.
It also said Spectrum was able to “specifically corroborate” Black Cube’s claims that Evolution’s games were accessible and generating revenue in several “prohibited locations”. These included Hong Kong, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
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Scotts Valley filed suit in response. In October 2025, Judge McFadden ruled that Interior had violated the tribe’s due process rights by rescinding the approval without giving prior notice or an opportunity to respond.
However, McFadden’s ruling left the door open for Interior to formally reconsider the underlying gaming eligibility question.
Scotts Valley has maintained that federal officials reversed course under intense political pressure from the Yocha Dehe Wintun Nation, a neighboring tribe that opposes the Vallejo casino development.
