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When Australia hosts its first-ever regular season NFL game, an estimated 10,000 US fans are expected to attend the matchup at the Melbourne Cricket Ground following an exhausting trip that features one of the world’s longest flight paths.
The historic showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers will take place at a venue located 7,971 miles from Levi’s Stadium, home of the last meeting between the NFC West rivals. Both teams are based in California, a fertile ground for prediction markets given a sports betting ban in a state with more than 39 million residents. But the Americans in attendance for Thursday night’s matchup (Friday in Melbourne) will not be able to live-trade from their seats.
That is because trading on prediction markets is illegal down under, according to the Australian Securities and Investment Commission, the nation’s regulator on financial services. Last month, in perhaps the ASIC’s strongest warnings yet against the asset class, the commission reiterated that prediction markets are not licensed as financial markets to operate in Australia. Through the guidance, the regulator urged consumers to exercise caution before partaking in certain investments on offshore platforms which have not obtained licensing nationwide.
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“The agreement paves the way for CME Group to list weekly, monthly and quarterly cash-settled futures contracts, pending regulatory review, based on the CME FSPI MLB benchmarks,” according to a statement issued by FutureSports.
Launch dates for the MLB team futures contracts weren’t revealed, but spring training for the 2027 season commences on Friday, Feb. 19, according to the league schedule.
The initial batch of FSPIs launched with NHL performance gauges, triggering a wave of filings from exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers seeking to launch futures-based funds for each professional hockey team. One issuer even filed plans for leveraged ETFs tied to the NHL indexes.
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“Consumers are being presented with more options for how they can participate in online gaming, creating a more competitive landscape where a seamless digital experience is increasingly becoming part of the value proposition,” said Jason Wolf, president of Fullstory, in a statement. “The brands that understand how consumers are navigating, comparing, and engaging with their platforms in real-time can identify where friction is getting in the way of trust and retention.”
A quarter of respondents said they use both prediction markets and sportsbooks depending on the event they’re considering wagering on. While the 35% reduced use figure may sound like a warning shot to gaming companies, a variety of other studies and surveys indicate that when bettors can choose between a sportsbook and an all-or-nothing exchange, they frequently opt for the former.
While sports event contracts are currently the tentpole category for the prediction market industry, data indicate bettors and traders are embracing other categories.