Treasure Vault

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Is the monopoly safe, is it set in the law that it will operate forevermore? No, it’s under constant evaluation, Petra explains: “The Dutch state, represented by the Ministry of Finance, is our shareholder and they evaluate every seven years, not only us as Holland Casino, but all state-owned companies.”

One of the operator’s most significant challenges is the increase in gambling tax enforced over recent years. Petra has been particularly vocal about this and the company’s profitability has taken a reasonable hit, since the first tax increase to 34.2% of GGR came into effect on 1 January 2025.

Holland Casino now pays 37.8% of GGR to the state, as per the additional increase in 2026, but with labour tax on top the business pays around 52% before they can look at their base running costs. It is not a small burden by any stretch of the imagination, so it is heartening to see the business doing well despite the tightening tax burden.

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Anyone residing in Cyprus, with income not high enough to support their basic needs, is eligible for the benefit.

Cyprus is not the first market to consider whether to block its welfare recipients from using their benefits to gamble, Brazil introduced a similar ban in 2025.

During a session of the House Audit Committee last Thursday, members of parliament (MPs), the Data Protection Commissioner and representatives from the Welfare Benefits Administration Service (WBAS), the Gaming & Casino Supervision Commission and the National Betting Authority (NBA) convened to discuss ways to identify and restrict gambling activity among GMI beneficiaries, as reported by Cyprus Mail.

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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.